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Who would win in a non-nuclear war between Russia and Turkey? - Russia Vs Turkey ✮ Extreme
What would happen if these two countries went to war with no nukes, allies, international politics and morale?
There are two options here.
One, an air war with missiles and aircraft only, other - a full fledged land war.
Air war would be more likely in this pretty unrealistic scenario.
Russia has more cruise missiles and a longer reach.It also has a ballistic missile force which could reach a fair part of the turkey.Turkish forces could respond only with short ranged cruise missiles fired from the air.Both sides would suffer some damage but neither would be seriously threatened.Russia would, however, cause some more damage.
150km range bm atacms
250 km range som
~300 cruise missiles (2500 km)
~200 cruise missiles (4000 km)
Turkish air bases benefit from their NATO legacy and regularly feature multiple runways and bunkers. Given their numbers and turkey’s size, a fair part of them would always be operational, despite russian missile strikes.
Russian air force features less multirole planes but it is also a few times more numerous than turkish.
Two thirds of russian planes are also quite old and relatively unmodernized since the cold war. The same could be said about one third of the turkish fleet.
Turkish pilots also train more (~3 times more).
23 f5a/b lift obsolete
51 f4 2020 old
20 f16 block30 old
115 block50 upg modern
80 block 50 old
30 block50+ new
85 su30 modern (20 old)
50 su35 new
130 mig29 (34 old, 24 modern)
80 su34 modern
150 su25 (80 old)
150 su27 (60 new)
120 su24 (80 new)
120 mig31 (80 modern)
15 su33 old
Due to greater russian numbers and vastly superior russian ground based air defences, turkish air forces would mostly play defense.
They would wait for the russian incursions and try to intercept them from afar, without getting into too many dogfights.While not modern nor numerous, turkish SAM systems would still present a valid threat to russian attackers.
Especially the half of the fleet which hasn’t been modernized since the cold war.
Turkey trails behind in number of awacs platforms, as well as elint and electronic warfare planes.
They would put turkish sams in a dangerous position, forcing them to relocate often and relegate them to occasional harassing role.
Perhaps more dangerous than HAWK Sams would be turkish low altitude SAMs, which are more numerous.
The fairly small number of modernized ground attack planes and small quantity of precision weaponry would be a problem for Russia. They could choose either to miss a lot of the targets shooting from high altitudes or go low for precision hits and get threatened by the turkish air defences. Without a land incursion, such an air war would be protracted event where both sides would suffer.
Turkey could choose when to engage the russian attackers and would enjoy a better kill rate and cause steady attrition to Russian air force.
That would, however, come at a cost of letting russians fly over the northern and eastern part of the country.They could bomb turkish land assets and infrastructure with only occasional interception attempt.
Turkey has more of the modern air to air missiles but overall numbers are still fairly small.
Given the historical kill percentages of air to air missiles even in advantageous situations, turkish air force would be forced to use older generation missiles after a few hundred downed russian planes. Going into shorter range territory against russian fighters which are designed for such combat would mean turkish kill ratio would suffer.
In reality, Turkey would choose a more aggressive stance, trying to intercept most incursions, yet still staying out of reach of russian air defenses.
It would mean its air force would eventually, after a year or so, be attrited to very small numbers.
Likewise, after a year or more of such air war, russian air force would be lacking possibly half of their initial fleet.Russia would also find itself unable to send more than a third of its fleet to the south of the Turkey, as their bases are relatively far away. Russian planes have fairly short ranges and many lack in flight refuelling option.
Coupled with weak precision bombing ability, it would also mean russians could not fully exploit the air superiority and easely pick off turkish tactical targets.
Russia may lose twice the number of planes compared to Turkey, but Turkey wold suffer more overall.
A vast number of large, fixed targets, a lot of infrastructure and some tactical targets would be left in ruins after a year of russian bombing.
It is clear who would have the upper hand in this conflict.